Reading a newspaper or internet article or entry regarding national real estate all homeowners can feel or have empathy towards the subject of the story. We read articles about construction, home improvements, real estate markets, or possibly loan or lender information and understand a little more. We view statistics of “this market is up, this market is down” and somehow distant ourselves. For many years, we in the Washington Metropolitan Area have been immune to downturns or minor fluctuations of market. We are not immune now.
National this, national that, all real estate is local; local might be defined as a town in Kansas or in a region in our area covering approximately 1,000 square miles. In particular, let us look at home sale results specifically pertaining to Fauquier, Culpeper, and Rappahannock Counties covering the period January 1, 2010 through March 25, 2010.
Great news, in the three counties 239 homes have transferred in 84 days, an average of approximately 3 per day. Reviewing this period, fewer homes will sell in 2010 than in 2009, however the Spring-market is beginning and the pace should increase. Buyer incentives are in play through April 30, 2010 for all purchasers with first-time buyer incentives continuing though December 31, 2010 at decreasing amounts: everything great news.
Peering deeper into the 239 homes that transferred, 90 homes were traditional sales, those that occur between a seller and buyer, neither being in apparent financial difficulty. 90 homes were sold by banks, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, or HUD that had previously been foreclosed. The remaining 59 were short sales, one being that the seller owed more money on the home then the home was worth in today’s real estate market. 63% of the homes sold in Fauquier, Culpeper, and Rappahannock Counties were apparent distressed sales. What is the national average; my answer would be “who cares, real estate is local” but the figure is 44%.
Now, we sit in “our” homes, bordering on the richest county in America, Loudoun County, and our home values have plummeted over the last four years to put every homeowner in financial danger. Whether your home is paid off or you owe a large amount in loans, your home is worth less today than in 2005. After 48 possibly large home loan payments, our homes value has depreciated. If we make 48 more home loan payments in the next four years will our home be worth more in “market value?” Buyer incentives going away, interest rates are rising, and 63% of the sales in our area would indicate that question is still unanswered.
Have a comment, please email Don Khoury at info@realestatephd.com .
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